Research

Overview of Research

My research examines how trade policy, regional integration, and globalization influence international trade, labor markets, and economic development, with a particular emphasis on African economies. My current research focuses on the trade effects of Regional Trade Agreements, the African Continental Free Trade Area, rules of origin, preference margins, globalization, and structural gravity models. I employ modern causal inference methods, including structural gravity estimation, difference-in-differences, triple-difference designs, triple-difference event-study analysis, and general equilibrium modeling, to evaluate the economic impacts of trade policy. My work seeks to provide evidence that informs trade policy and regional integration while contributing to the broader literature on international economics and economic development. My research interests include International Trade, Regional Integration, African Economic Development, Trade Policy, Structural Gravity Models, Applied Econometrics, Causal Inference, General Equilibrium Trade Policy Analysis, Globalization, and Labor Economics.

Job Market Paper

Who Gains from a US–EU Free Trade Agreement? Relative Wages, Employment, and Welfare in General Equilibrium. Under review at Review of World Economics (Springer)

Abstract: This paper investigates the labor-market and welfare implications of the proposed Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) between the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) using a multi-country, multi-sector general equilibrium framework with endogenous labor mobility across sectors. Trade-cost changes associated with existing regional trade agreements (RTAs) and the hypothetical TTIP are estimated using a gravity model and subsequently incorporated into a general equilibrium framework solved in changes following the exact hat algebra approach. The analysis quantifies the effects of TTIP on relative wages, sectoral employment, consumer prices, and worker welfare across countries. The results indicate that TTIP would generate substantial gains for EU member states, particularly smaller and less-developed economies, through higher relative wages, lower consumer prices, and improved worker welfare. In contrast, the effects on the US are modest, with slight declines in relative wages but limited changes in overall welfare. Most non-member countries experience welfare losses as trade and production are diverted toward the integrated transatlantic market. The findings suggest that while TTIP would strengthen economic integration and improve labor-market outcomes within the EU, its benefits would be unevenly distributed across countries, creating winners and losers through trade diversion and changes in international competitiveness.

Publications

Financial Depth, Gross Fixed Capital Formation, and Economic Growth: Empirical Analysis of 18 Asian Economies with John Boamah, Richmond Essieku, and James Chikelu, International Journal of Scientific and Education Research, 2(4), 2018.

Sarima Modelling of Inflation: The Case of Liberia with John Lewis, Richmond Essieku, John Boamah, and James Chikelu, Journal of Research in Business and Management, 6(2), 2018.

Principal Component and Factor Analysis of Macroeconomic Indicators with John Lewis, James Chikelu, and Martin Osei, IOSR Journal of Humanities and Social Science, 23(7), 2018.

Working Papers

AfCFTA and the Extensive Margin of Ghanaian Exports: Evidence on Product Diversification, Market Entry, and Survival. Under review at International Economics and Economic Policy (Springer)

Abstract: This paper examines the effects of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) on the dynamics of Ghana's exports using highly disaggregated HS6-product data covering 196 destination markets. Moving beyond aggregate trade flows, the analysis investigates the impact of AfCFTA on the intensive, extensive, entry, exit, and survival margins of trade. Estimating the extensive margin within a gravity framework with PPML, which is well-suited to handling zero trade flow and heteroskedasticity, the results indicate that AfCFTA has strengthened Ghana's export performance by expanding market participation, encouraging entry into new destination-product markets, reducing export exits, and improving the persistence of export relationships. A series of robustness checks, including alternative treatment years, major commodity exclusions, and event-study analyses, confirm the stability of the findings. The results suggest that the gains from AfCFTA extend beyond higher trade volumes to encompass export diversification and the sustainability of export relationships, highlighting the Agreement's potential to support Ghana's long-term trade integration and structural transformation.

The Post-Multi-Fiber Arrangement Dynamics of Apparel Trade under the African Growth and Opportunity Act. Under review at International Economics and Economic Policy (Springer)

Abstract: This paper evaluates the impact of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) on United States (US) apparel imports from Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), with particular emphasis on the period following the 2005 expiration of the Multi-Fiber Arrangement (MFA). To identify the causal effects of AGOA, I employ a Triple-Difference (TD) estimator with a rich set of fixed effects, exploiting variation across countries, products, and time. By simultaneously comparing changes along these three dimensions, the TD framework accounts for unobserved factors that may bias conventional Difference-in-Differences estimates and provides a more credible identification of the trade effects of AGOA. The results indicate that AGOA increased US apparel imports from SSA by approximately 90%, a finding that is broadly consistent with the projections of the legislation. However, the expiration of the MFA intensified competition in global apparel markets, leading to a moderation in export growth among AGOA beneficiaries. The adverse effects were particularly pronounced among non-least developed countries in western and southern Africa, which faced greater challenges competing with low-cost apparel exporters. Conversely, eastern African countries were relatively resilient to the post-MFA competitive pressures, potentially reflecting their comparative advantage in labor-intensive apparel production, supported by abundant low-cost labor and growing integration into global apparel value chains.

AGOA and Africa's Welfare: A General Equilibrium Analysis with the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood Estimator with John Lewis, Under review at Journal of African Trade 

Abstract: Assuming a full-endowment framework, we employ the General Equilibrium Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (GEPPML) methodology developed by Anderson, Larch, and Yotov (2015) to estimate the welfare effects of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) within a structural gravity setting. Using bilateral trade data for African countries and the United States (US), we conduct a series of counterfactual simulations that examine both the abolition of AGOA for all eligible countries and its extension to all non-eligible countries, while holding the effects of geography and colonial ties constant. The results indicate that eliminating AGOA reduces welfare in approximately 90% of eligible countries but increases welfare in about 95% of non-eligible countries. Conversely, extending the AGOA intervention to non-eligible countries generates measurable welfare gains for nearly all countries on the continent, especially new entrants. We further evaluate a reciprocal AGOA arrangement by granting comparable trade preferences to the US. In this scenario, consumers in all eligible countries experience welfare improvements, while many producers across Africa incur losses.

Revisiting Five Decades of African Regional Integration: Has Globalization Overestimated the Trade Effects of Regional Trade Agreements?  Under review at Review of Development Economics

Abstract: This paper re-examines the trade effects of African Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) through the broader lens of globalization. Existing studies generally attribute Africa's trade expansion to regional integration while assuming that the trade-impeding effects of international borders and geography remain constant over time. Using a structural gravity model estimated by Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) on a panel of 122 countries covering 1960–2021, this paper allows the effects of international borders and effective distance to evolve, thereby separating the contribution of regional integration from broader globalization forces. The results show that RTAs increased intra-African trade by approximately 670% when border and geographic frictions are assumed constant. However, once these frictions are allowed to vary over time, the estimated long-run effect falls to about 260%, indicating that a substantial share of Africa's trade growth reflects declining border frictions and reduced effective distance rather than regional integration alone. The analysis also uncovers significant trade diversion after accounting for globalization and shows that the estimated RTA effects are robust to alternative data intervals and sample periods. Moreover, the analysis found a smaller trade effect in the post-WTO period than in the pre-WTO period, suggesting that accelerating globalization has reduced the incremental contribution of RTAs to trade growth. These findings demonstrate that conventional gravity models systematically overstate the trade effects of African RTAs by conflating regional integration with broader globalization-induced reductions in trade frictions.

Globalization, Borders, and the Limit of Regional Trade Agreements in Africa. SSRN WP No. 6765419

Abstract: This paper examines the dynamic trade effects of RTAs in Africa within the broader context of globalization. Using a dynamic gravity model that accounts for international borders and geographic factors, the results indicate that RTAs led to a 670% increase in intra-African trade over 45 years. However, when border-related frictions capturing the effects of globalization are included, the trade impact drops to 260%, supporting the view that the large average trade effects of RTAs in Africa cannot be explained by tariff reductions alone. The analysis also uncovers significant trade diversion effects when non-tariff barriers are considered, challenging the conventional view of RTAs as net welfare-enhancing in Africa. 

Evaluating Malaria Prevention Strategies in Pregnancy: Evidence from Antenatal Care in the Northern Regional Hospital, Tamale with Doreen Adongo, SSRN WP No. 6831218

Abstract: We examine the effectiveness of malaria prevention measures among pregnant women in Tamale and surrounding communities, focusing on insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (IPTp-SP). Using survey data from 250 pregnant women attending antenatal care at Tamale Central Hospital, we employ a binary logit model to assess how preventive behaviors influence malaria risk during pregnancy. Our findings show that ITN use significantly reduces the probability of malaria risk by about 48% after controlling for relevant socio-demographic and obstetric factors. Pregnant women who receive IPTp-SP doses experience approximately a 35% reduction in malaria risk, indicating a potentially strong protective effect. We investigate whether the effect of ITN usage depends on IPTp-SP uptake by interacting them. The interaction between ITN use and IPTp-SP reduces the probability of malaria risk approximately between 7% and 8% beyond their individual effects, indicating complementarity between the two interventions. Additionally, malaria risk is lower among older pregnant women, those with higher gravidity, women with formal education, and those who are married. Conversely, women who are unemployed or engaged in informal sector work, as well as those with higher parity, face a greater risk of malaria infection. Our results highlight the need to strengthen ITN promotion, improve adherence to IPTp-SP dosing protocols, and address socio-economic disparities in access to prevention.

Trade Preferences without Market Access: Rules of Origin and Ghana's Exports under AfCFTA with Ibrahim Tiamiyu

Abstract: This paper examines how product-specific Rules of Origin (RoO) shape Ghana's export performance under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Using information from the AfCFTA e-Tariff Book, the study constructs a comprehensive HS6-level RoO restrictiveness index covering more than 4,500 products. The index captures variation in origin requirements arising from wholly obtained provisions, changes in tariff classification, regional value content thresholds, material content requirements, and specific processing rules. The RoO index is merged with Ghana's bilateral export data for 196 destination markets over the period 2014–2023 to investigate whether products facing more restrictive origin requirements experienced different export outcomes following the implementation of AfCFTA in 2021. Exploiting variation in RoO restrictiveness across products, destinations, and time, the analysis employs triple-difference and event-study designs to identify the causal effects of RoO on export values, market participation, export entry, and export survival. By linking detailed product-level origin requirements directly to export outcomes, the paper provides one of the first empirical assessments of how the design of AfCFTA RoO influences firms' ability to access and sustain participation in regional markets.

Work in Progress

Have We Overestimated the Trade Effects of Regional Trade Agreements? Evidence from a Dynamic Gravity Model

Do Deep Trade Agreements Stimulate FDI and Capital Inflow? Evidence from OECD RTAs and Implications for TTIP